Traffic Impact Score (0–100)

Each event generates a score based on four weighted factors. Scores from concurrent events stack — two medium events can be worse than one large one.

Factor 1: Venue Capacity (40%)

Larger crowds = more vehicles. We estimate ~60% of attendees drive (based on Manchester transport surveys).

Capacity	Base Score	Example
40,000+	40	Etihad Stadium (match day)
15,000–40,000	30	Co-op Live (sold-out concert)
5,000–15,000	18	Co-op Live (half capacity)
1,000–5,000	8	Velodrome / CFA
<1,000	3	Small community event

Factor 2: Event Type (25%)

Different events have different traffic patterns. Football has sharp peaks; concerts spread over longer periods.

Type	Multiplier	Why
Football	1.3×	Sharp arrival/exit, road closures
Concert	1.1×	Staggered arrival, sharp exit
Family/Entertainment	1.0×	More staggered, more public transport
Cycling/Sport	0.8×	Enthusiasts, many cycle or use tram
Community	0.6×	Local attendees, less driving

Factor 3: Time of Day (20%)

Events during rush hour compound with commuter traffic.

Window	Multiplier	Why
4pm–7pm	1.4×	Evening rush + event arrival
7am–9am	1.2×	Morning rush overlap
7pm–10pm	1.1×	Event time, lower commuter
Other	1.0×	Baseline

Factor 4: Event Stacking (15%)

Multiple events with overlapping traffic windows multiply the chaos.

Overlap	Multiplier	Example
3+ events	1.5×	Match + concert + velodrome
2 events	1.25×	Match + concert same evening
1 event	1.0×	Single event

Score → Level

Score	Level	Advice
70–100	🔴 Severe	Avoid the area entirely. Use M60/alternative routes.
40–69	🟠 High	Expect 20-40 min delays. Leave early or late.
15–39	🟡 Moderate	Some delays likely. Allow extra 10-15 min.
1–14	🟢 Low	Minor impact. Normal driving OK.
0	⚪ Clear	No events. Normal traffic only.

What's Next

🔜 Real event data — Ticketmaster & Songkick API integration

🔜 Live traffic overlay — TomTom Traffic Flow API to validate predictions

🔜 Historical learning — Compare predictions vs actual congestion to improve the model

🔜 User-reported data — Let locals flag events we miss